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2021 Lithium battery industry research report
 作者:站长 Date: 2021/12/30 10:50:35 Popularity:1476 Tags: Industry topics   

2021 Lithium battery industry Research report | Hunan Machinery Industry Association

2021 Lithium battery industry Research Report, Hunan Machinery Industry Association

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      1 Global automobile revolution, resonance at home and abroad to meet the electric future

      A comprehensive electrification transformation of the global automotive industry

      New energy vehicles (BEV+PHEV) have been available before 2010, and global sales of new energy vehicles have decreased from 12 to 12 since 2012.50,000 units rose rapidly to 3.24 million units in 2020, and it is expected to break through to more than 6 million units in 2021。From the perspective of penetration rate, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2012 was only 0.2%, and the penetration rate will reach 4.2%。According to EV Sales data, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles from January to September 2021 reached 4.3 million, and the cumulative penetration rate reached 7%, of which the monthly sales volume in September reached 68.50,000 vehicles, a monthly penetration rate of 10.2 percent, breaking double digits for the first time。

Chinese market: The rise of consumption, multi-brand resonance brings rapid increase in penetration

In 2021, China's new energy vehicle sales continued to grow at a high rate。In 2020, despite the impact of the epidemic and other factors, China's new energy vehicle sales still maintained a positive growth trend;In 2021, with the successive launch of new models by various car companies, the new energy vehicle consumer market is still showing a hot trend。From January to October 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China reached 256.60,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 177%;In terms of permeability, the cumulative permeability from January to October reached 12.14%, a significant increase from the full-year level in 2020;In October, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 16%。

      European market: Automobile carbon emission standards are tightening, and the EU will achieve zero emissions by 2035

      The EU has the world's toughest carbon emissions standards。According to regulations adopted by the European Union in 2019,95% of new cars sold in the EU in 2020 will have an average carbon emission of 95g/km,By 2021, 100% of the average carbon emissions of new cars will need to meet this requirement,Vehicles that exceed carbon emission standards will be subject to a fine of 95 euros per g,And according to the latest emissions data for 2020,Only 21% of passenger cars registered in the EU in 2020 will meet standard carbon emission standards。In July 2021, the EU again passed the Fit For 55 bill, proposing that the carbon emission standard from 2030 will be reduced by 55% on the basis of 2021 (the original target is 37.From 2035 onwards, it will be reduced by 100%, that is, from 2035 onwards, it will achieve zero emissions of vehicles and achieve a comprehensive transformation of vehicle electrification。

      Us market: the carbon emission + points policy is becoming stricter, and the Biden policy is warming for new energy

      The overall development of new energy vehicles in the US market is relatively slow, and sales will usher in rapid growth in 2021。Different from Europe and China's new energy vehicle sales in full swing, the overall growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in the US market is slow, and the sales volume in 2020 is only 330,000, with a penetration rate of 2.3%;In 2021, the overall sales accelerated, and the cumulative sales in the first three quarters reached 43.50,000 vehicles with a penetration rate of 3.Sales are expected to exceed 600,000 units for the full year。

The process of electrification in the North American market is expected to accelerate for both domestic and overseas car companies。American carmakers speed up electrification,Ford plans to reach 40% electrification by 2030, Gm aims to achieve zero emissions in light vehicles by 2035,The two major car companies will invest up to 30-40 billion yuan in the field of electrification before 2025,At the same time, it established a battery joint venture company with SKI and LG to lay out battery production。On the other hand,European, Japanese and Korean car companies have also increased their investment in the US market,Volkswagen plans to have half of the cars it sells in the United States in 2030 be all-electric models,Honda reaches 100% electrification rate in North America by 2040,Hyundai is investing $7.4 billion in the U.S. market by 2025 to lay out the electrification transition。

      2 China's battery industry chain is leading the world, and the overall competition pattern is becoming centralized

      Under the trend of vehicle electrification, the global power battery installed capacity is rising rapidly。Benefiting from the rapid advancement of vehicle electrification in the Chinese and European markets, global new energy vehicle sales have risen rapidly since 2016, and the installed capacity of power batteries represented by lithium iron phosphate and ternary batteries has risen rapidly。In the first three quarters of 2021, the global installed power battery capacity reached 195.4GWH, an increase of 131%;The corresponding power battery installed capacity in China reached 92GWH, an increase of 169%, exceeding the global average growth rate, and accounting for nearly half of the world's battery installed capacity。

      Chinese enterprises came behind, and Ningde Era ranked first in the global power battery shipment list。Ningde Times has occupied the top position of global power battery shipments for many years in a row, and its global market share reached 24% in 2020, and the global market share of volume companies benefiting from overseas customers increased steadily in 2021, and the global market share reached 31 in the first three quarters.2%, further opening the gap with the latter enterprises。Overall, the top ten power battery companies in the world are dominated by five Chinese companies, including Ningde Times, BYD, Guoxun High-tech, AVIC Lithium, Vision Energy, etc.The remaining five power battery companies are distributed in Japan and South Korea, once again reflecting the strong market position of China, Japan and South Korea in the field of lithium batteries。

The battery industry is accelerating the reshuffle, and the industry concentration is constantly improving。In 2016, there were more than 300 domestic power battery companies, and by September 2021, a total of 54 power battery companies in China's new energy vehicle market realized loading and supporting vehicles, further reducing 10 from the same period last year。From the perspective of industry concentration, the total market share of the top ten enterprises in China's power battery installed capacity has steadily increased since 2017, and the cumulative installed capacity of the top 3, top 5 and top 10 enterprises in the first three quarters of 2021 is 73.0%、83.6%、91.7%。Similar to the domestic market, the global power battery installed capacity also shows a trend of concentration increase, CR10 total market share of more than 90%。

      Cathode material: lithium iron phosphate is warming up, and the industry is entering a new round of expansion cycle

      Shipments of positive electrode materials increased steadily, and the proportion of shipments of lithium iron phosphate increased significantly。Benefiting from the improvement of downstream power battery demand, positive electrode material shipments reached 47 in the first half of 2021.5万吨。Among them, the lithium iron phosphate positive electrode benefited from the increase of downstream installed capacity, and the overall proportion increased to 37%;Ternary cathode material shipments reached 190,000 tons, accounting for 40%, and power battery materials are still the main contribution。

Rongbai technology ternary lead, Defang nano lithium iron phosphate lead。Although from the overall market competition pattern,The competition pattern of positive electrode materials is scattered;Subdivision lithium iron phosphate and ternary cathode field,We can see that Rongbai Technology, Bama Technology, Dangsheng technology, long-term lithium and Zhenhua new materials are in the leading position in the ternary positive electrode,Defang Nano, Hunan Yuleng, Hubei Wanrun, Longpan Technology (former Betrie lithium iron phosphate assets) in the leading position of lithium iron phosphate。We believe that with the continuous embodiment of the overall scale advantages of the industry, as well as the advancement of the trend of ternary high nickelization, the overall market concentration is expected to further increase in the field of ternary or lithium iron phosphate。

      Negative electrode materials: power restriction affects graphitization capacity, and enterprises with a higher proportion of self-production benefit

      Artificial graphite still occupies the main share of negative electrode materials。Shipments of negative electrode materials in the first half of 2021 reached 33.20,000 tons, of which artificial graphite shipments accounted for 85%, still occupying the main market share。

Different from the production of natural graphite,The raw materials of artificial graphite are mainly needle coke, petroleum coke and other products,In the process of processing into finished products need to go through a process of graphitization, That is, thermal activation can realize the orderly transformation of thermodynamically unstable carbon atoms from chaotic layer structure to graphite crystal structure,At present, the graphitization processing fee accounts for 50% of the cost of artificial graphite。In order to further reduce production costs, Shanshan shares, Betri, Kaijin Energy, Pu Tai Lai, Zhongke Electric, Xiang Fenghua, Betri and other artificial graphite enterprises through the self-construction or acquisition of graphitization capacity, reduce the outsourcing processing part, improve profitability。

      The graphitization processing fee has risen significantly, and leading enterprises may benefit。In 2021, especially since the third quarter, graphitization has been shut down due to the limited capacity of some energy-consuming enterprises, and the overall processing fee has continued to rise, and the current average graphitization processing fee has reached 2.About 50,000 yuan/ton, nearly double the 20-year low。We believe that in the short term, the graphitization shortage will continue, and Pu Tai Ai (Jiangxi Zichen) is expected to benefit from the higher graphitization self-supply ratio, while the rest of the artificial graphite enterprises that enjoy the increased graphitization self-supply ratio will also further benefit。

      Diaphragm: wet method still occupies a major position, and second-line enterprises welcome good opportunities for development

      Njie shares are leading the industry, and the proportion of second-tier enterprises is expected to increase under the background of tight supply and demand pattern。From the perspective of shipments in the first three quarters of 2021, Njie Shares (including Suzhou Jieli and Chongqing Niumi) accounted for 39% of shipments, continuing to rank first in the industry, and Star Source Materials and Sinomaterials Technology (including Hunan Zhongli) ranked second and third。In addition, Hebei Jinli, Cangzhou Pearl and other old diaphragm enterprises are also on the list。We believe that under the background of the current overall production capacity of the diaphragm is tight, the overall capacity utilization rate of some old enterprises is expected to be significantly improved, and the operation situation will usher in the double catalysis of rising volume and price。

      Electrolyte: The price of raw materials is obvious, and the advantages of integrated layout are highlighted

      The prices of raw materials such as lithium salt and additives have increased significantly, and the advantages of the integrated layout of the industrial chain have been highlighted。In addition to the price rise of lithium hexaflurophosphate in the past 21 years, the price of electrolyte additives represented by VC has also risen sharply, affected by the rapid increase in the cost of electrolyte, mainstream enterprises are through the price increase of the terminal transmission of cost upward pressure, and the first layout of the upstream industry chain of enterprises are thus benefited。In general, Tianci Materials benefits most from its presence in the field of lithium hexafluorophosphate and additives,Electrolyte gross margin level increased significantly in the first half of 2021,New Zhou Bang and Shanshan shares have a layout in other links,The Jiangsu Guotai is to reduce the impact of price fluctuations of lithium hexafluorophosphate in the form of a long single。

      3 Looking forward to 2022: battery price increases, large cylinder batteries, tight supply and demand links

      It is expected that the global sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2022 is expected to reach 10 million units。We believe that with the joint efforts of the Chinese, European and North American markets,Global sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 10 million in 2022,Among them, the Chinese market is expected to continue to occupy about half of the global market share with the driving force of the rise of consumption,The US market is expected to gradually climb with the New Deal to stimulate the overall market。

      Affected by rising raw material prices, the cost of power batteries has risen significantly。Since 2021, the downstream demand for new energy vehicles has continued to improve, and the demand for battery materials has risen significantly, partially alleviating the serious mismatch between supply and demand structure, and the prices of core lithium battery materials have risen。Specifically, PVDF, lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium carbonate and other products rose in the front, affected by this positive electrode material, electrolyte two major battery direct material prices rose sharply。According to our calculation, taking the current mainstream lithium iron phosphate and ternary 523 single crystal battery as an example, the four time nodes on March 31, 2021, June 30, 2021 and September 30, 2021 are represented, and the cost has risen by about 15%, 20% and 40% respectively compared with the beginning of the year。

      Lithium iron phosphate: The installed capacity is picking up, and the energy storage market is opening up new space for growth

      The installed capacity and proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries show an upward trend。Affected by the landslide of domestic new energy vehicle subsidy policies, the installed capacity of domestic power batteries in 2020 will be 63.64GWh, an increase of 2%。Since 2017, the high energy density-oriented subsidy policy has impacted the demand of the lithium iron phosphate battery industry。However, at present, new energy vehicles are shifting from policy-driven to market-driven, and the low-cost and high-safety performance advantages of lithium iron phosphate batteries are prominent。The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery in 2020 is 24.4GWh, accounting for 38 of the total installed capacity.3%, a year-on-year increase of 20%.6%;The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate reached 44 in the first three quarters of 2021.8GWH, an increase of 332%, accounting for 48% of the total installed capacity.7%, and the proportion of monthly installed capacity in September has reached 57.8%。

      Energy storage can be applied to power grid transmission and distribution and auxiliary services, renewable energy grid-connected, distributed and micro-grid and user-side parts。Especially in the context of "carbon neutrality", the installed capacity of new energy sources and the penetration rate of power generation continue to increase, forcing the demand for energy storage to increase;In the traditional power system, the power output curve is relatively stable, but because of the obvious fluctuation of renewable energy generation, the increase of permeability will bring new tests to the grid load。In this context, the configuration of energy storage will effectively smooth renewable energy output, absorb excess power, reduce "wind and light" and instant grid connection。

(Source: Power Battery Branch,Guotai Junan Securities Research)

2021 Lithium battery industry Research report | Hunan Machinery Industry Association

2021 Lithium battery industry Research Report, Hunan Machinery Industry Association

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